2045 ASEAN Vision: World Restructuring Economic Priority

According to reports from Southeast Asian media, the latest ASEAN Senior Economic Officials Preparatory Meeting hosted and held by Malaysia on Friday kicked off the ASEAN Summit and a series of strategic partnership meetings scheduled for May 26-27, 2025. Senior officials from ASEAN countries, representatives from Timor Leste, and officials from the ASEAN Secretariat gathered together to unify their positions on major regional issues before the ASEAN summit. It is expected that this summit will focus on geo economic issues, such as how to deal with global turbulence, US tariffs, resolve the Myanmar crisis, including implementing the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, deepening regional economic integration, and promoting ASEAN's leadership in emerging fields and supply chains.

As we enter the final stage of the ASEAN Community Vision 2025. This year's ASEAN Summit will sign and launch a development vision for the next 20 years, namely the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 (ACV 2045), which focuses on proposing important guidelines for sustainable development to guide ASEAN to stand firm in a constantly changing world. The content will formulate new strategies in four major areas: political security, economy, socio-cultural and regional integration, and promote the creation of a resilient, innovative, dynamic and people-oriented ASEAN community by 2045.

It is reported that the ASEAN Political Security Community is regarded as a political security pillar in the global geopolitical trend. Currently, ASEAN is facing pressure from the strategic competition between China and the United States, as well as external interventions that affect its core position. Due to the different positions and national interests of ASEAN member states, balancing their relationships with each other or superpowers in a multipolar world that is trending towards fission will be a major challenge, requiring proactive diplomacy and close cooperation between each other. Previously, the United States imposed trade tariffs on trading countries around the world, and the ASEAN region became a disaster area. However, the different performances of member countries towards the United States indicate the urgent need for deepening and strengthening diplomatic communication and cooperation within the organization.

Regarding maritime security and territorial disputes. The South China Sea dispute remains a sensitive issue that may escalate regional tensions. ASEAN member countries Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and China have territorial disputes in this region, with particularly intense conflicts and frictions between the Philippines and China. According to the 2025 Southeast Asia Situation Report, 51.6% of respondents are most concerned about the tense situation in the South China Sea, far exceeding last year's 39.9%. The South China Sea dispute has become the most concerning geopolitical issue in Southeast Asia. In addition, there is also an issue of overlapping border sovereignty between Thailand and Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos. Therefore, seeking peaceful solutions based on international law and strengthening maritime security cooperation are crucial for all member states. However, the reality is that the negotiations on the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which ASEAN supports and advocates, have been progressing slowly for over 10 years.

Regarding the issue of combating transnational crime and terrorist threats. This is not limited to any one country, but is interconnected at the regional and global levels. Whether it is combating drug crime networks, illegal weapons, human trafficking, and smuggling of contraband, including cyber fraud zones, it requires member states and even partners, including non ASEAN countries, to connect with each other, strengthen intelligence cooperation and law enforcement efforts. But in an increasingly interconnected world, cybersecurity threats have become a new challenge that affects economic and social security. It is equally crucial to improve the cybersecurity capabilities of countries and regions and establish cooperative mechanisms to address threats. Under the current situation, the development of digital infrastructure in the ASEAN region is still inconsistent, and the efficiency of the ASEAN Secretariat and various institutions in responding to crises and challenges urgently needs to be improved. The Myanmar crisis has been ongoing since 2021, and the implementation results of the "Five Point Consensus" proposed by ASEAN to the Myanmar military have been limited.

The ASEAN Economic Community is another important pillar committed to combating uncertainty in the context of geo economics becoming a tool for great power competition. The current superpowers are attacking each other through trade protectionism, hindering technology transfer, and may even escalate into economic wars. This has brought opportunities and challenges to Southeast Asian countries. In order to reduce the risk of geopolitical and economic conflicts, many countries have begun to consider diversifying their supply chains or becoming alternative production bases. However, there is a gap in the level of digital development among ASEAN member states, and the infrastructure and regional connectivity that are conducive to trade and investment urgently need to be strengthened. Technological competition among major powers also poses challenges to ASEAN's digital economic transformation. The current issue for ASEAN is how to narrow the digital divide and create a sustainable and secure digital ecosystem. In addition, there is economic inequality among ASEAN member states, which also challenges the possibility of creating inclusive economic growth, equal economic opportunities, and caring for vulnerable groups in the future. In addition, climate change and environmental issues are global challenges that include all ASEAN countries, and there is an urgent need to transition to a green economy and promote the implementation of a sustainable green economy.

ASEAN trade integration and market access began with the formal realization of regional integration through the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) in the early 1990s. In 2015, the ASEAN Economic Community was established, which led to rapid economic development for all member countries. In the future, adhering to the principle of multilateralism is ASEAN's value orientation and an important factor supporting ASEAN to become the main force of the global economic community. Next, it is necessary to continue opening up the market, creating opportunities, and seeking economic cooperation within member countries and outside the region to maintain ASEAN's competitiveness on the global stage. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which has been in effect and implemented for three years, is still regarded as a key mechanism for promoting the healthy growth of the ASEAN Economic Community.

ASEAN also regards the Socio Cultural Community as the core of community development. Although member states have different social and cultural backgrounds, respecting and promoting human rights and fundamental freedoms is the foundation for sustainable, fair, and just societies. This includes human rights and fundamental freedoms; Education and workforce development; Public health and pandemic prevention; Establishing social security for all citizens, caring for vulnerable groups, reducing inequality, expanding social protection scope, promoting cultural protection and exchange, making appreciation of cultural diversity an ASEAN identity, and enhancing economic strength through cultural and creative tourism.

Cross Pillar and Connectivity Issues are regarded as the foundation of ASEAN regional integration. Such as connecting the development of traditional infrastructure (such as roads, railways, ports, airports, power transmission systems) and digital Internet infrastructure, promoting economic and social integration, reducing trade costs through strong connectivity, and promoting the interaction between investment and people. Including mitigating the impacts of extreme weather, rising sea levels, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions on climate and environmental sustainability, there is an urgent need for ASEAN to interconnect and cooperate at all levels. Create sustainable and inclusive social, cultural, and environmental protection measures, establish sustainable economic growth mechanisms, and seek to become a solid foundation for long-term stability.

Thai Southeast Asian scholars point out that in the context of global turbulence and intense geopolitical and economic competition, Southeast Asian countries are actively responding to inevitable challenges. By looking ahead to the main issues of ASEAN in the next 20 years and understanding the four pillars that ASEAN will soon announce, it will become a key guide for grasping the direction of ASEAN's development.