Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2025-05-12 Origin: Site
The recent escalation of the war between South Asian countries India and Pakistan has raised a red light for regional security, and the highly anticipated US China tariff negotiations have also highlighted the uncertainty of the future. Southeast Asian analysts generally believe that there should not be too much hope for resolving structural conflicts between the United States and China. The finance ministers of the ten ASEAN countries and China, Japan, and South Korea declared their joint efforts to address trade protectionism and adhere to conducting economic, trade, and financial cooperation within the framework of multilateralism. It can be seen that Asian countries are striving to seek regional financial and economic stability amidst the increasingly volatile global security situation.
Illustration shows U.S. and Chinese flags
According to Thai media reports, India and Pakistan, who have recently engaged in military conflicts in the disputed Kashmir region, have accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. The day before, due to pressure from the United States, India and Pakistan, two nuclear armed countries, agreed to a ceasefire on Saturday (May 10th). But just a few hours later, explosions rang out again in the border area between India and Pakistan. The foreign ministries of both countries have clarified and accused each other of tearing up the ceasefire agreement.
Southeast Asian media commented that the recent India Pakistan conflict is the most intense battle in nearly thirty years. South Asia is one of the most sensitive and densely populated regions in the world. Two countries with long-standing historical grievances have conflicts in religion, ethnicity, politics, and other aspects. Once the situation is allowed to escalate into a full-scale war. Everyone is concerned that the India Pakistan conflict may follow in the footsteps of the Russia Ukraine or Israel Palestine wars and evolve into a conventional war, while also worrying that the nuclear arsenals of both countries may play a role in the conflict.
While the international community is closely monitoring the risks of the India Pakistan war, the Chinese military industry, which provides military weapons to Pakistan, has received attention from industry insiders. Thai security personnel believe that this airstrike provides a rare opportunity for military forces around the world to collect intelligence data. By using data on fighter jets and other weapons used in maritime, land, and air conflicts, it can be used to study the performance of pilots, fighter jets, and missiles in actual combat, thereby strengthening the combat readiness of their own air forces. The biggest benefit is that China, with advanced military technology, can monitor the movements of potential enemies such as India in real-time from border bases in the future.
In early April, the United States triggered an international trade war by imposing reciprocal tariffs. Chinese and American economic and trade officials held talks in Geneva, Switzerland on Saturday (May 10). This is a high-level official meeting held after weeks of tension between the two countries due to the tariff confrontation. Bangkok Business News reported today that US President Donald Trump expressed satisfaction with the China US talks through social media and both sides agreed to "reset everything amicably
It is reported that the launch of US China tariff negotiations aims to resolve the trade war that damages the global economy and avoid triggering a global economic depression. Representatives from both sides will continue negotiations today (May 11th). The relevant details have not been disclosed to the public yet.
Chinese official media Xinhua News Agency criticized an article on Saturday for the United States' "excessive imposition of tariffs that have disrupted the global trade order". At the same time, it is stated that the purpose of this meeting is to "resolve the conflict and prevent the escalation of the situation
Thai media analysis suggests that China and the United States have different goals, and the structural conflicts between the two sides are difficult to reconcile. Currently, Washington hopes to reduce its trade deficit with China and persuade China to adopt trade policies that benefit its exports, while also hoping that China will purchase more goods from other countries. These demands require China to carry out structural reforms internally, touching on sensitive political issues, and Beijing has always maintained a political tradition of resisting external interference. Beijing demands equal treatment on the world stage, while also hoping that Washington will reduce taxes and clarify the list of products that China needs to purchase. Analysis generally believes that it is difficult for China and the United States to achieve substantive negotiation results in the short term. The reason is that both the United States and China do not want to be seen as the one giving in or surrendering.
Southeast Asian media reported that China's net exports increased by 8.1% in April, while exports to the United States shrank by 21%. However, exports to ASEAN increased by 21%, and exports to the European Union increased by 8%. Analysis indicates that China's export data has exceeded the predictions of most economists, while also suggesting that China is increasingly reliant on exports to other countries.
The contraction of China's exports to the United States shows the initial impact of high tariffs imposed by the United States. It is widely believed that if the tax rate is not lowered, the bilateral trade between China and the United States, which amounts to about 600-700 billion US dollars annually, will significantly decline. In fact, bilateral trade between China and the United States has gradually come to a standstill. It is expected that the trade downturn caused by tariff policies will become more pronounced in the future.
The decline in trade between two superpowers is not good for any country. This is reflected in the remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who believes that the current tax rate measures are "unsustainable".
It is worth noting the timing of the meeting between the trade representatives of China and the United States.
An earthquake occurred in Myanmar at the end of March, causing significant losses. Xi Jinping promised to assist Myanmar in post disaster reconstruction and urged Myanmar to accelerate the drive for domestic political stability. Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing agrees with China's vision of building a community with a shared future in the surrounding areas and is willing to work together with China to tackle common challenges. After the Myanmar military seized elected government power in 2021 and sparked a civil war between the military and opposition, Min Aung Hlaing has been isolated by the international community, mainly Western countries. However, the massive earthquake in Myanmar prompted multiple countries, including China, India, and Russia, to provide assistance.
Southeast Asian countries, in response to asymmetric trade negotiations with the United States and the potential financial storm, issued a joint statement at the 28th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, expressing their attitude towards Trump's tariff 2.0, stating that "trade protectionism" is a major source of future uncertainty. It leads to economic differentiation, production chain disruption, disruption of trade and investment environment, abnormal capital flows, and slowing economic development. The statement reaffirms the commitment to multilateralism based on non discriminatory, open, fair, and inclusive rules for all countries, and upholds equality, transparency, and a multilateral trading system centered around the World Trade Organization. ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea will continue to follow the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for trade and cooperation. In addition, ASEAN member countries have conducted financial cooperation with China, Japan, and South Korea and jointly developed financial management guidelines. Intended to promote regional economic growth and maintain fiscal stability and sustainable development. In the future, we will respond to the Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI) and develop the local currency bond market in Asia, making China and Japan more important participants in the Asian bond market and reducing dependence on US dollar financing.
Thai international relations scholar Arm Tungnirun analyzed that the global situation is changing and a new world pattern is taking shape. This involves everyone, the country, and the government. Although Trump insists that imposing tariffs will "make America stronger" and Beijing has stated that it will "stay with us until the end", the reality is that this round of tariffs has put heavy pressure on both the US and China. Beijing has decided to maintain a "tough stance" international image in negotiations, drawing lessons from Trump's trade war 1.0. This move aims to send a clear signal to the White House administration that China not only has other trade options, but is also shaping an alternative to global leadership.
